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Sources and Methods

• START I Aggregate Numbers of Strategic Offensive Arms (As of January 1, 1999)
• NRDC Nuclear Notebook @ Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
• Current World Nuclear Arsenals @ CDI

North Korea is believed to have about two nuclear weapons, and a variety of potential delivery systems, including perhaps 10 Nodong-1 medium range missiles of uncertain reliability.

Under the START-1 agreement, all nuclear warheads of the former Soviet Union were withdrawn to Russia. The SS-19 and SS-24 ICBMs and BLACKJACK and BEAR H Heavy Bombers to be eliminated remain in Ukraine. The SS-18 ICBMs and BEAR H Heavy Bombers in Kazakhstan were returned to Russia, as were SS-25 mobile ICBMs in Belarus.

Traditionally this type of data display would largely recapitulate American and Russian forces accountable under the then-prevailing strategic arms control agreement. This method was never entirely satisfactory, given the inevitable discrepancies between arms control counting rules and actual force deployments, but in the past it provided a useful indicator of static force postures. In recent years, however, the discrepancies between START-accountable forces and the forces actually available to American and Russian commanders have become so profound as to render a rehearsal of the START-accountable numbers rather uninteresting.

Russian bomber and ICBM numbers are according to the 01 January 1999 START data exchange, which includes all START-accountable treaty-limited items, regardless of their present operational status. Actually available Russian forces are almost certainly rather smaller than displayed here, given low maintenance rates due to financial constraints. Under the START-1 counting rules, some non-deployed Russian forces remain treaty-accountable due to incomplete deactivation, including all the SS-N-8 missiles on Delta-I submarines, two of the remaining 13 Delta-IIIs [one of which has been stricken but not dismantled, the other of which is undergoing a protracted conversion to support special operations], as well as three of the six Typhoon class submarines. The figures for Russian SLBM/SSBN forces displayed here include only actual operational nuclear delivery systems, and ignore these artifacts of the START counting rules. Evidently only one Typhoon SSBN is currently in service, of the seven extant Delta-IVs one has remained in overhaul since 1993 and two others are reportedly unfit for service.

US bomber and ICBM numbers are for Primary Aircraft Inventory [PAI], which excludes backup and attrition reserve aircraft as well as aircraft in depot maintenance and units no longer on alert but not completely dismantled according to START dismatlement rules. Total inventory counts, as well as START-accountable numbers, will be higher than the PAI figures given here. American B-1B bombers remain START-accountable, even though they are currently restricted to non-nuclear conventional missions. The figures for US bomber forces displayed here include only actual operational nuclear delivery systems, and ignore these artifacts of the START counting rules.

01 Jan 1999 PAI START B-52 56 204 B-1 70 91 B-2 12 20 MM-2 0 1 MM-3 500 650

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